Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
Despite the wobble in the markets over the past few weeks, Indian equities remain expensive as measured by several yardsticks. India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, for instance, has touched a multi-year high. The ratio is currently at 116 per cent, based on the FY22E gross domestic product (GDP) number, above its long-term average of 79 per cent.
'One should not invest more than 5 to 10 per cent of their overall portfolio exposure in global or international funds.'
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Havells India, the country's largest listed consumer electrical company, reported a mixed performance in the 2024-25 (FY25) October-December quarter (Q3). While the top line benefited from festival demand, lower margins impacted operational performance.
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) delivered a stronger-than-expected operational performance in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25), driven by solid growth in its automotive (auto) and farm equipment segments. Higher volumes improved operating leverage, expanding margins.
These were the fastest and most consistent wealth creators over the past 5 years.
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
rediffGURU Sunil Lala answers your personal finance-related queries.
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
A key indicator of corporate efficiency may now be better than at any time since the turn of the millennium. The net working capital cycle - a crucial measure that tracks the time a company takes to convert current assets like inventory into sales and then collect the money from customers - has seen remarkable improvement. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the average company needed nearly 90 days to complete this cycle in 1999-2000.
Inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) continued their strong momentum in July, despite the market volatility triggered by the Union Budget.
Shares of brokerages and market infrastructure institutions (MIIs) witnessed heavy selling pressure following the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) pivot to a uniform fee structure, which analysts fear could dent revenues. Discount brokerages, which currently benefit from a spread between client charges and exchange fees, are expected to be most affected. Shares of Angel One, the third-largest brokerage by active clients, fell 8.7 per cent. Groww and Zerodha, the largest brokerages, are not publicly listed.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
A robust margin performance in the September quarter (Q2FY25) led to a 12 per cent rise in the stock of defence major Bharat Electronics (BEL). While the stock has given up most of those gains in the recent market correction, analysts are positive on the company due to its strong order book, new order inflows, and margin trajectory. The near-term trigger has been the operating performance in Q2FY25.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd has become the country's fifth most valuable auto firm by market valuation in its debut trade on Tuesday. Shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd, the Indian arm of South Korean automaker Hyundai, listed at Rs 1,931, reflecting a decline of 1.47 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,960 on the BSE earlier in the day. The stock slumped 7.80 per cent to Rs 1,807.05 during the day and finally ended at Rs 1,820.40 apiece, down 7.12 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
While selecting a smallcap scheme, go with one that has a good track record and a stable fund manager.
Brokerages lowered their earnings estimates following muted results in Q1FY24. While analysts remain optimistic about the stock's medium-term prospects, they highlight near-term concerns stemming from lower realisations due to changes in the product mix and margin pressures resulting from new plane additions.
Omkeshwar Singh, head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
The only silver lining in March's performance -- which otherwise dragged down the financial year's momentum -- was a 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth compared to March of the previous year. This is largely due to incentives, festival-driven gains, and new launches.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
TCS tops the list of 100 wealth creators for the fourth time in a row
Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which manage a total of Rs 37,390 crore, have surged sharply in recent months. This trend is likely to continue, especially after the reintroduction of long-term capital gains tax (LTCG), which is likely to attract smart money into mutual fund offerings amid a robust outlook for the yellow metal. Smart money, also known as opportunistic flows, refers to strategic investments that are generally of a short-term horizon.
Mutual Fund inflows in FY25 have already reached two-thirds of the total inflows seen in the entire FY24, with net inflows standing at Rs 1.3 trillion.
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, will answer your queries.
Shares of Bajaj Finance surged over 6 per cent on Thursday after the diversified non-banking finance company reported an 18 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter. The stock rallied 6.33 per cent intraday to touch Rs 8,249.95 - a 52-week high -- on the BSE.
Defying the bearish sentiment in the markets on Monday, ICICI Bank's share price rose by 2 per cent, reaching an intraday high of Rs 1,234.4 per share on the BSE. With a 1.5 per cent gain at the close, the stock emerged as the top performer on both the BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 indices.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) share price plunged 6.66 per cent to Rs 1,203.50 per share on the NSE during Friday after analysts remained cautious on the company's Q3 performance and differed on its growth outlook. DRL's Q3 performance was viewed as subdued by some analysts when they adjusted it for one-time grants and incomes that the company received during the quarter.
Wondering if you did the right thing with your mutual fund investments?
Berger Paints, the country's second-largest decorative paint maker, continued to outperform its peers and gain market share in the 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3). The company posted a consolidated revenue growth of 7 per cent compared to the year-ago quarter, surpassing Asian Paints (5.4 per cent) and Kansai Nerolac Paints (5.7 per cent).
The current valuation is 38 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 22x and over 50 per cent higher than the 20-year average of around 20x.
Lump sum investments in equity and hybrid schemes of mutual funds (MFs) declined to Rs 17,900 crore in October - the lowest since January 2021. The fall in lump sum investments comes even as flows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) rose to a new all-time high of Rs 13,000 crore in October. The latest lump sum tally is just a third of the peak inflow of Rs 49,700 crore in July 2021.
